Category Archives: Business Products & Services

Dismantling United States health insurance control password early intervention to reduce payment cos 瑜杨伟业

The dismantling of United health insurance cost control: early intervention to reduce the password compensation cost Sina fund exposure table: the letter Phi lag of false propaganda, long-term performance is lower than similar products, to buy the fund by the pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! On each reporter Tu Yinghao following the "daily economic news" on the thematic analysis for China’s health insurance market share and space, professional health insurance company operating situation, we can understand that it will be a great market potential of the "fat" industry, but to face this trillion market share, shortage, health insurance product specialization, lack of profit to the short-term problem is still the domestic health insurance development challenges. This special report will be the country’s biggest health insurance companies — United health as a sample, around the business of health insurance and health management (UnitedHealthcare) industry chain (Optum) two plates to decode the health insurance "managed care" mode of operation to the authority of experts; the sound development of our health insurance to interpret sleepy. In recent years, through the introduction of the mechanism of commercial insurance, medical institutions control over health care, inhibit the excessive growth of medical expenses, become the direction of reform of international medical security system. At the same time, with the increasing participation of Business insurance company in medical reform, the market space will gradually open. The industry is expected, with the deepening of the medical reform, the future of basic medical insurance in China accounted for less than 30%, and 70% of the market will belong to commercial health insurance. The "daily economic news" reporter noted that the current health insurance business model on more mature international including the United Kingdom as the representative of national medical mode, represented by Germany’s social medical insurance model, and to the United States as the representative of the commercial medical leading mode. In contrast, China’s commercial health insurance started late, facing such short-term problems as shortage of health insurance products, lack of professional management and difficult profit making. But in recent years, the direction of reform of China’s medical institutions gradually clear, speeding up the application of network technology and medical technology, the medical insurance business "fine" management bring opportunities for the insurance companies to implement. In this context, the American managed care has a certain reference value for the innovation of health insurance model in china. Even insiders say, health management model will be the best model to solve many problems. Managed care successful cost control with the rapid development of national economy, people’s living standard has been greatly improved, the health consciousness also increased significantly, rising demand for health insurance products, the development of China’s health insurance at the right time. However, in the rapid growth of health insurance premiums, the health insurance institutions are still facing an embarrassing situation of loss. Behind this image, is many factors restricting the development of health insurance: the low level of information technology, the medical risk is difficult to control, easily lead to adverse selection and moral hazard. Learn from the mature market technology experience, combined with the national health care system, design a feasible business model, is one of the development path of the domestic health insurance company. Insiders point out that, throughout the American Medical System Theory

拆解美国联合健康保险控费密码:提前介入诊疗降低赔付成本 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   ◎每经记者 涂颖浩   继《每日经济新闻》上期针对我国健康险市场份额和空间、专业健康险公司经营情况的专题分析之后,我们可以了解到,这将是一块极具市场潜力的“肥肉”产业,但要啃下这万亿市场份额,健康险产品短缺、专业化经营不足、盈利难等短期问题仍是国内健康险发展历程中面临的挑战。   本期专题将以美国最大的健康保险公司――美国联合健康为样本,围绕其健康保险业务(UnitedHealthcare)和健康管理产业链(Optum)两个板块来解码健康险“管理式医疗”的经营模式;以权威专家的声音来解读我国健康险发展之困。   近年来,通过引入商业保险机制,控制医疗机构过度医疗,抑制医疗费用过快增长,成为国际上医疗保障体系的改革方向。与此同时,随着商业保险公司在医疗改革中参与度的不断提升,市场空间将逐步打开。   有业内人士预计,随着医疗改革的深化,未来我国的基本医疗保障占比将不超30%,而70%的市场都将属于商业健康险。   《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,目前国际上较为成熟的健康险经营模式包括:以英国为代表的国家医疗模式、以德国为代表的社会医疗保险模式,和以美国为代表的商业医疗主导的模式。   相比之下,我国商业健康险起步较晚,面临着诸如健康险产品短缺、专业化经营不足、盈利难等短期问题。但近年来,我国医疗机构改革方向愈渐清晰,医疗及网络高科技技术应用加快,给保险公司实施医疗保险业务“精细化”管理带来机会。在此背景下,美国的管理式医疗对我国健康险模式创新具有一定的借鉴意义。甚至有业内人士直言,健康管理模式将会是解决当下诸多问题的最优模式。   管理式医疗成功控费    随着国民经济的持续快速发展,老百姓的生活水平大幅提高,健康意识也明显增强,对健康保险产品的需求不断上升,我国健康险发展正当其时。然而,在健康险保费较快增长的同时,经营健康险的保险机构仍面临亏损的尴尬局面。这一表象的背后,是制约健康险发展的诸多因素:信息化水平低、医疗风险控制难度大、容易引发逆向选择和道德风险。   借鉴成熟市场技术方面的经验,与国家医疗体系相结合,设计出可行的商业模式,是国内健康险公司的发展路径之一。业内人士指出,纵观美国医疗体制的发展历程,结合当下我国医疗体系现状,健康管理模式将会是解决当下诸多问题的最优模式。   上世纪70年代前,美国采用的一直是传统的“实报实销”看病模式,病人可以自由选择任何一个医生就诊,然后由保险公司付钱。今天在我国经常看到并为之头疼不已的大处方、过度医疗等问题,也是导致当时美国医疗开支大幅增加,并催生管理式医疗模式的重要原因。   所谓管理式医疗模式,是支付方与服务提供方联合提供服务,即保险机构直接参与医疗服务体系管理。其实质在于,医保机构从游离于医患关系之外的被动赔付者转变为介入医患关系之间的“第三方”,通过对医疗机构的供给行为和患者消费行为的主动管理,克服医患关系中的市场失灵,解决医疗费用和医疗质量等问题。   在美国医疗保险体系中,保险机构管理医疗机构、管理医生、管理病人,充分发挥保险机构在医疗保险运营管理过程中的作用。管理式医疗模式对医方强化了病人来源的稳定性,以就诊人数的增加弥补了价格上的损失;参保人能够以较低的保费,享受较好的医疗服务质量;而保险机构则通过参与医保体系的管理,从而实现控费。   如保险公司与合作医院的医生签约,要求医生在某种疾病中,严格按照风控体系所设计的用药方式为患者用药。如果遇到特殊患者时,需要就病情入网申请,批复后可为患者用药。医生擅自为患者用药的,医生和医院之间将面临经济风险。实践证明,此举有效控制了过度医疗消耗带来的医疗费用上涨,并保证了医疗效率和服务质量的提高。   管理式医疗模式现已成为美国医疗保障体制的主体。目前,在美国医疗保障体系中,基本医疗保障占比30%,主要针对特定人群(如年龄超过65岁、儿童或者困难人群等);商业医疗保险占比70%,提供基础医疗不覆盖人群的医疗保障。这也是业内预计未来中国医疗保障体系的潜在格局。   各产业板块协同发展    在管理式医疗模式下,美国的健康险公司是如何参与医保体系的管理,并成功实现控费的?   位于明尼苏达州的联合健康,是美国最大的健康保险公司,成立于1974年。联合健康的主要部分为健康保险业务(UnitedHealthcare)和健康管理产业链(Optum)两个板块。作为保险的延伸,后者主要由健康管理公司(Optum Health)、健康信息技术服务公司(Optum Insight)及药品福利管理公司(OptumRX)三家子公司组成。   从综合健康管理产业链布局和主营业务收入等经营指标中发现,坚实的保险主业是其成功的基础。长江证券研究报告认为,虽然业务结构相对多元,但从保险业务和其他业务划分来看,公司主要收入和利润依然来自于保险业务,其中保费收入占比90%,从利润结构来看保险业务利润结构占比70%左右。   另一方面,Optum在健康管理、系统建设和药品服务领域的专业化发展也为联合健康旗下保险公司的发展起到了巨大的推进作用。其不仅提升了保险公司的服务能力,成为保险公司的业务助推器,更可以协助保险公司加强医疗行为监控,有效降低赔付成本,成为保险主业的风险助控器。   比如,健康管理产业链充分利用信息技术,打造专业优势。OptumInsight是一家服务领域覆盖整个医疗行业的大型IT系统服务商,不仅可以为医院设计临床诊疗路径,也可以帮助保险公司设计核心业务、财务系统,同时它还能通过历史数据分析帮助政府优化医保方案,提升政府公共服务的效率和质量。目前,OptumInsight的客户已经延伸至包括政府、医院、保险公司、药品福利公司在内的产业链各环节。强大的系统也成为联合健康集团串联内部各板块,有效促进业务发展,防范业务风险和控制经营成本的坚实基础。   如何介入并影响客户的诊疗行为,向客户提供经济实用的治疗方案,从而降低保险公司的赔付成本,是健康保险从业者始终关心的问题,也是保险公司提升盈利能力的关键。   OptumRX是介于保险机构、药品供应商、医院、药房之间的管理协调机构,目的是满足客户便利化的购药需求,帮助患者对医疗费用,特别是药品费用进行有效管理。   据了解,OptumRX拥有一个覆盖67000所药店和两个邮局系统的药品配送体系,以及一套连接医院、药房和保险公司的后台支持系统。而它的邮购和专业药房服务能力是其业务的重要战略组成部分,这能为患者提供便携的药物,还能为患有慢性疾病的个体提供复杂的药物治疗和患者管理服务。因此,该公司还能通过提高运营效率和规模经济效益来管理客户的药品费用。   用户在医院获得处方后,后台支持系统会将处方信息实时交换到公司的处方审核部门,处方进行审核后将最终药品清单和客户自付金额交换至药房或邮局,客户可以自由选择到药房或通过邮寄获得药品。而通过处方审核,公司既可以识别不合理用药,也可以为客户寻找高折扣的替代药品,从而降低药品费用,达到患者、保险公司、OptumRX多方共赢的目的。   国内研究人士认为,联合健康的运营模式比较完整,在各产业板块协同发展、利用信息技术整合产业链、介入客户诊疗行为等方面都有自己独特而有效的运营方式。   一位健康险公司高管告诉记者:“在经历了多年发展后,目前其客户量很大,产生平台效应后,可通过与药厂合作、做健康管理服务并收费等形成多元化的盈利模式。”据了解,OptumHealth主要面向联合健康保险板块的团体客户,提供个性化的服务并收取相应的管理费用,2005年开始,该公司经营利润率始终保持在10%以上。   不过,也有业内人士认为,管理式医疗模式能否在中国落地,依然面临诸多挑战。健康险公司能否通过资源整合、真正实现医疗控费,令患者与公司受益?如何吸引更多的消费者改变以往线下就医习惯、更多地参与互联网诊疗等,都是当前亟需解决的实际问题。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

Three generation nuclear power technology into large-scale international promotion period, 4 leading 江西理工大学应科院

The three generation nuclear power technology into the large-scale international promotion of 4 leading stocks were optimistic about the Level2:A shares of sina finance financial App: Sina speed disk live on-line blogger to guide the three generation nuclear power technology has entered the large-scale international promotion Chinese nuclear power and other 4 leading stocks to be optimistic – the newspaper reporter Wu Shan recently, the "Hualong No.1" international summit and the "Hualong Tour" series of activities at the opening of the Shenzhen Dayawan nuclear power base. During the summit, for more than ten cnpec target market countries and partners from Britain, Thailand, the promotion of the three generation nuclear power technology, China’s independent research and development of the "Hualong No.1" technology and export support plan, promote the independent nuclear power technology in China to go out. Boosted by this news, yesterday, the nuclear plate changes significantly, the overall plate rose to 1.67%. Stocks, 42 stocks rose plate, Shanghai electric topped the rise reached 5.72%, followed by the Atlantic rose to 5.01%, and a heavy Chinese Ganneng shares also rose more than 3%, respectively 4.61% and 3.73%, in addition, Jia Electric shares (2.99%), zheneng power (2.87%), Chinese XD (2.75%), Dongfang Electric (2.54%), the East zirconium industry (2.35%), Shenergy (2.35%), (2.12%) Qunxing toys and other stocks also rose more obvious. Capital flows, yesterday, a total of 28 nuclear power share capital favored by the big one, among them, 10 stocks large single capital inflows surpassed 10 million yuan, specifically, a significant Chinese single net inflow of funds to reach 82 million 997 thousand and 800 yuan, TBEA large net inflow of funds 42 million 835 thousand and 900 yuan, zheneng electricity, and Chinese west capital net inflow of large single also surpassed 30 million yuan, respectively, 36 million 828 thousand and 200 yuan and 31 million 437 thousand and 100 yuan, in addition, large single net inflows over 10 million Yuan stocks as well as the East zirconium industry (28 million 421 thousand and 700 yuan), Shanghai electric (20 million 346 thousand and 200 yuan), Shenergy (19 million 165 thousand and 900 yuan), Fushun special steel (17 million 917 thousand and 400 yuan), Ganneng (14 million 161 thousand and 800 yuan), wal nuclear material (13 million 354 thousand and 400 yuan). From the industry fundamentals, released the Information Office of the State Council on the China involved in nuclear field is the first white paper "Chinese nuclear emergency", at present, the operation of nuclear power China group 30 units, the total installed capacity of 28 million 310 thousand kilowatts, nuclear power in the construction of 24 units with a total installed capacity of 26 million 720 thousand kilowatts. Among them, the number of nuclear power plants under construction ranks first in the world, and the total number of units under construction and transportation in the world ranks third. In 2015, the approved nuclear power generating units were 8 units, 6 units were started and 8 units were put into operation (6 commercial units were put into operation). From the number of approved or started, China’s nuclear power development rate is gradually back to the level before Fukushima accident. With the development of nuclear energy, nuclear power safety and nuclear emergency work also need to improve simultaneously. The release of the white paper reflects the state’s nuclear power theory

三代核电技术步入大规模国际推广期 4只龙头股被看好 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   三代核电技术步入大规模国际推广期   中国核电等4只龙头股被看好   ■本报记者 吴 珊   日前,“华龙一号”国际峰会及“华龙之旅”系列活动在深圳大亚湾核电基地开幕。峰会期间,中广核面向来自包括英国、泰国等在内的十余个目标市场国和合作伙伴推介了我国自主研发的三代核电技术――“华龙一号”技术及出口配套方案,进一步推动我国自主核电技术走出去。   受此消息提振,昨日,核电板块异动明显,板块整体涨幅达到1.67%。个股方面,板块内42只成份股实现上涨,上海电气涨幅居首达到5.72%,紧随其后的大西洋涨幅为5.01%,赣能股份和中国一重涨幅也均在3%以上,分别为4.61%和3.73%,此外,佳电股份(2.99%)、浙能电力(2.87%)、中国西电(2.75%)、东方电气(2.54%)、东方锆业(2.35%)、申能股份(2.35%)、群兴玩具(2.12%)等个股涨幅也较为明显。   资金流向方面,昨日,共有28只核电股受到大单资金青睐,其中,10只个股大单资金净流入额均超1000万元,具体来看,中国一重大单资金净流入居首,达到8299.78万元,特变电工大单资金净流入4283.59万元次之,而浙能电力、中国西电大单资金净流入也均超3000万元,分别为3682.82万元和3143.71万元,此外,大单资金净流入超1000万元的个股还有,东方锆业(2842.17万元)、上海电气(2034.62万元)、申能股份(1916.59万元)、抚顺特钢(1791.74万元)、赣能股份(1416.18万元)、沃尔核材(1335.44万元)。   从行业基本面来看,国务院新闻办公室日前发布的中国涉核领域第一部白皮书《中国的核应急》显示,目前中国大陆运行的核电机组30台,总装机容量2831万千瓦,在建的核电机组24台,总装机容量2672万千瓦。其中,在建核电机组数位居世界第一,在建、在运机组总数位居世界第三。2015年,批复建设的核电机组为8台,开工建设6台,投入运行8台(其中投入商业运行6台)。无论是从获核准数还是开工数上看,中国核电发展速度正逐步回到福岛事故之前的水平。   随着核能事业发展,核电安全与核应急工作也需要同步提高。白皮书的发布,体现了国家对核电安全的重视,这有利于未来核电的安全可持续性发展。而在我国,除了环保、能源供应紧张两大因素之外,核电作为高端制造业的代表,海外前景美好也是我国发展核电的主要动力。   对此,东吴证券表示,核电海外扩张和内陆启动将继续拉升板块估值,装备企业今年将迎来订单拐点,业绩拐点于明后年开始体现,其中手握核心原材料、新产品品类储备丰富以及布局核电后市场的先行者会实现业绩大幅增长。最看好具备核电主设备核心零部件生产能力的企业,推荐组合:南风股份(核电风机、核电锻件、3D打印)、中核科技(国企改革)、应流股份(核一级铸件、核主泵泵壳、15.15亿元增发中广核参与)、台海核电(主管道50%市占率)。   申万宏源则看好核电产品收入占比高,业绩弹性大以及在关键核心部件国产化方面有突破的公司,重点推荐应流股份和台海核电,建议关注久立特材和中国核电。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

The White House 19 trillion dollars in debt, Republicans are also responsible 南京财经大学研究生处

The White House: $19 trillion debt Republicans also have the responsibility of U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Sina warrants stocks Beijing time 3 days the outgoing Obama administration is destined to give newcomers leave a stunning "heritage" — a record of $19 trillion debt. On Tuesday, however, the White House said that the legacy was actually a Republican contribution". At the end of 1 2016, the US government debt exceeded $19 trillion, and the debt to GDP ratio is approaching 105%. At the sensitive moment of the election, politicians and media from many Republican parties attacked Obama and Democrats for this reason. White House press secretary Ernest (Josh Earnest) stressed in the daily routine press conference, the current debt is in fact a large part is caused by the period of President George W. Bush’s government, he launched the tax policy and the war in Iraq, Obama will continue to pay for it, not to mention the Great Recession is not the responsibility of Obama. "To really understand the long-term trend, we must first look at what happened when the last Democratic president left the office. He left his successor with a clear fiscal surplus." He explained that President George W. Bush had introduced a tax cut policy for the rich, and launched a "ground war" that needed to be paid later in the middle east. Then there was a great recession, which brought huge pressure on the federal budget. How the 19 trillion dollar debt was tempered, the spokesman stressed: "to lead our economy out of the trough, to recovery, and fiscal responsibility to do all of this, this is the most appropriate description of the current presidential heritage." Ernest pointed out that Obama cut the budget deficit to 75% of GDP in the two term of the white house. (Zi Jin) editor in chief: Li Wu SF053

白宫:19万亿美元债务共和党也有责任 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   新浪美股北京时间3日讯 即将卸任的奥巴马政府注定要给后来者留下一笔令人瞠目的“遗产”――创纪录的19万亿美元债务。不过,当地事件周二,白宫发声辩解,称这“遗产”其实也有共和党的一份“贡献”。   2016年1月末,美国政府债务规模突破了19万亿美元,债务占GDP比率正迫近105%。在大选的敏感时刻,许多共和党阵营的政治家和媒体纷纷以此为理由攻击奥巴马总统和民主党。   白宫新闻秘书欧内斯特(Josh Earnest)在每天例行的新闻发布会上强调,当前的债务其实很大一部分是小布什总统政府时期造成的,他推出减税政策和发动伊拉克战争,奥巴马还要继续为其埋单,更不必说大衰退绝非奥巴马的责任了。   “要真正理解长期趋势,我们必须首先看看上一任民主党总统离开办公室时是怎样的情形。他留给自己继任者的可是明明白白的财政盈余。”   他解释说,继任的小布什总统推出了为富人减税的政策,并且在中东发起了一场“后来还需要不断付出代价的”地面战争。   接下来发生了大衰退,给联邦预算造成了巨大的压力。 19万亿美元债务是怎样炼成的   这位发言人强调:“引领我们的经济走出低谷,走向复苏,而且还是以财政上高度负责的态度完成了这一切,这才是当前总统遗产的最恰当描述。”   欧内斯特指出,奥巴马在白宫的两个任期内将预算赤字对国内生产总值的比例削减了75%。(子衿) 责任编辑:李兀 SF053相关的主题文章:

Japan and India held the first high speed railway related senior officials meeting to explore Shinka 牌坊下的女人剧情介绍

Japan India held the first meeting of senior officials of relevant high-speed Shinkansen mode of U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes of Beijing in February 15, according to Japanese media reports, Japan’s "Shinkansen on the mode of Western India high-speed railway project, Japan and India the two sides held senior government officials in the western city of Mumbai on 14 July, the first joint committee meeting to discuss funding and personnel training cooperation and other matters during the year and strive to draw certain conclusions. According to reports, the meeting on the day was closed, Japanese Prime Minister Assistant Foreign Minister, foreigner, India national transformation committee vice chairman Panna Ghalia, and relevant officials of the two countries attended. The second round of the plan is scheduled for May. Earlier, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and India Prime Minister Modi held talks in New Delhi in December 2015 and decided that the route of about 500 kilometers between Mumbai and Ahmedabad should adopt the Shinkansen model". The two countries also decided to set up a joint commission to promote relevant consultations. In the project cost of 980 billion rupees (RMB 93 billion 600 million yuan), Japan intends to provide about 80% yen loans to aid. Shinkansen is a comprehensive system covering operation and security, and the system will be faced with personnel training and other issues. Editor in chief: Zhang Yujie SF107

日印举行首次高铁相关高官会议 探讨新干线模式 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   中新网2月15日电 据日媒报道,关于印度西部高速铁路项目采用日本“新干线模式”一事,日印两国本月14日在西部城市孟买召开双方政府高官的首次联合委员会会议,商讨了资金和人才培养合作等事宜,力争年内得出一定结论。   据报道,当天的会议为闭门会,日本首相助理和泉洋人、印度国家转型委员会副主席帕纳加里亚以及两国相关部门官员等出席。5月计划召开第二轮会议。   此前,日本首相安倍晋三和印度总理莫迪在2015年12月在新德里举行会谈时决定,孟买和艾哈迈达巴德之间的约500公里路线采用“新干线模式”。两国还决定成立联合委员会以推动相关磋商。   在9800亿卢比(约合人民币936亿元)的项目费用中,日本拟提供最多约八成的日元贷款予以援助。新干线是涵盖运行及安全等的综合系统,采用该系统将面临人才培养等课题。 责任编辑:张玉洁 SF107相关的主题文章:

Investor Futures limited downside soybean or inflection point 三峡大学是几本

Investor Futures: limited downside soybean or inflection point clients view the latest market summary: 1, improve the global soybean supply and demand, which fell in the global space to improve soybean supply and demand situation, the U.S. soybean futures index even less likely to break support and continue to explore the negative effects of low, and to bring the market to digest the harvest, focus or will turn to the three quarter of this year, the South American export demand, transshipment exports less than in previous years, buyers will demand postponed to buy U.S. soybean export demand, so the current demand is expected to remain cautious optimism, or support for the U.S. soybean futures price. In addition, the fourth quarter of South America, the new quarter soybean planting area growth is limited, the weather also exists variables, slow growth rate of production, is conducive to inventory consumption.     2, soybean food demand and auction price slightly higher 2015 soybeans because of high prices cannot attract buyers to purchase and sale market in the beans, so beans State Reserve weekly volume stable at around 100 thousand tons, with the temperature decrease, and the major institutions of school, South market was picking up demand for soybeans the average transaction price rise, Chen beans, steadily higher prices for the market to provide support for Chen Dou. 3, the weather affect crop growth, yield compression is expected in June July to the end of the Yangtze River Basin wide range of heavy rainfall, including Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places have a lot of rain, heavy rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin will damage local crop growth, although the proportion of production in these areas is less than the northeast, but also weakens the planting area the increase in the yield of rising height. It rains then northeastern region, alleviate the drought early, but Inner Mongolia and Northern Heilongjiang are part of soybean producing areas early frost, because the temperature decreased rapidly and the continued rainfall, may lead to some soybean mature grain plumpness is poor, resulting in local yield loss. The influence of strong rainfall and the early frost this year, domestic soybean yield even growth, probably less than the acreage amplitude. 4, the seasonal off-season imports, soybean supply decreased, it is understood that in September is expected to reach 6 million 100 thousand tons of soybeans in October, the latest expected 6 million 500 thousand tons in November, the preliminary expected 6 million 500 thousand tons. From the expected value, the 9-10 month is China’s soybean imports off-season, the port volume decreased significantly, even if Chen Dou auction may make up for some gaps, but soybean port inventory may still show a downward trend, the overall supply of soybeans reduced. 5, strategic plan (1) capital management: this transaction intends to invest 10%-20% of the total funds, after the number of positions Jiancang, the proportion does not exceed 30% of the total funds. (2) the position cost: the transaction adopts the strategy of batch Jiancang, and the position cost is controlled between 3400-3550 tons of A1701 contract. (3) risk control: if the 1701 contract price break 3300 tons, then start the implementation of part of the stop loss, if the closing price of the futures price is below 3200 yuan ton, you need to stop all the positions. (4) holding period: the trading position is expected to be 3 months, depending on the market changes and basic situation. 瑞达期货:下跌空间有限 大豆或现拐点 客户端 查看最新行情   内容提要:   1、全球大豆供需改善,制约下跌空间   在全球大豆供需改善的格局下,美豆期货指数连破支撑位且继续探新低的可能性较小,而且待市场消化收割带来的利空影响后,焦点或将转向出口需求,今年南美三季度转船出口量不及往年,促使买家将部分需求延后至购买美国大豆需求,因此出口需求预期当前保持谨慎乐观态度,或对美豆期货价格存在支撑。此外,四季度南美新季度大豆种植面积增幅有限,天气亦存在变数,产量增长步伐放慢,有利于库存消耗。     2、食品大豆需求回暖,拍卖均价小幅走高   2015年大豆因价格高无法吸引买主,市场购销以国储豆为主,所以国储豆周度成交量稳定在10万吨左右,随着随着气温下降,以及各大院校开学,南方市场对大豆需求呈回升态势,陈豆成交均价出现提升,稳步走高的陈豆价格为市场提供支撑。   3、天气影响作物生长,压缩新豆产量预期   6月底至7月份长江流域大范围强降雨,包括湖北、湖南、安徽、江苏等地出现大量降雨,长江流域的大量降雨将损害当地作物的生长,尽管这些地区产量比重不及东北地区,但也会削弱种植面积增加带来的产量上升高度。随后东北地区也出现降雨,缓解前期旱情,但内蒙以及黑龙江北部有部分大豆产区出现早霜,因气温快速降低以及降雨持续,可能会导致部分产区大豆成熟时籽粒的饱满度稍差,致使局部产量受损。在强降雨和早霜的影响下,今年国产大豆产量即使出现增长,幅度恐怕也不及种植面积。   4、进口季节性淡季,大豆供应减少   据了解,9月份预计到港大豆610万吨,10月份最新预期650万吨,11月份初步预期650万吨。从预期数值来说,9-10月份是我国大豆进口淡季,到港量明显下降,即使陈豆拍卖可能弥补部分缺口,但大豆港口库存仍可能呈现下降趋势,大豆总体供应减少。   5、策略方案   (1)资金管理:本次交易拟投入总资金的10%-20%,分批建仓后持仓金额比例不超出总资金的30%。   (2)持仓成本:交易采取分批建仓策略,持仓成本控制在A1701合约3400-3550元 吨之间。   (3)风险控制:若1701合约期价下破3300元 吨则开始执行部分止损,若期价收盘价处于3200元 吨下方,则需要对全部头寸作止损处理。   (4)持仓周期:本次交易持仓预计3个月,视行情变化及基本面情况进行调整。   (5)止盈计划:当期价向我们策略方向运行,A1701合约上方目标看向4000元 吨,若此区域呈现整理态势,则减持仓位,逐步获利了结,若A1701合约强势上破4000元 吨一线,则进一步持仓看向4200元 吨。视盘面状况及技术走势可滚动交易,逐步获利止盈。   (6)风险收益比评估:帐户总资金为1000万元,持仓不高于300万元,预期风险收益比为2.78 :1。   策略概述   在全球大豆供需改善的格局下,美豆期货指数连破支撑位且继续探新低的可能性较小,而且待市场消化收割带来的利空影响后,焦点或将转向出口需求,对出口需求预期当前保持谨慎乐观态度,或对美豆期货价格存在支撑。此外,四季度南美新季度大豆种植面积增幅有限,天气亦存在变数,产量增长步伐放慢,有利于库存消耗。国内方面,随着气温下降,以及各大院校开学,南方市场对大豆需求呈回升态势,陈豆成交均价出现提升,稳步走高的陈豆价格为市场提供支撑;受异常天气影响,新豆产量增幅预期被压缩,收割时期适逢大豆处于进口淡季,减弱新豆上市压力。总体来说,尽管国内外产量提升制约短期期价上行空间,但是在全球大豆供需改善环境下,期价继续下跌空间有限,后市在国内需求回暖以及美豆出口需求上升等因素提振下或探低回升。   影响因素分析   一、全球大豆供需改善,制约下跌空间   美国农业部USDA在6月份供需报告中对16 17年度供需预估进行调整。报告显示,全球大豆需求保持稳定增长,生产步伐整体放慢,使得当年度供应出现小幅缺口,库存消费比连续两个年度下滑,2016 17年度由2015 16年度的22.73%降至20.2%,为是十二年来最低位,意味着全球大豆供需格局由供应过剩进一步过度至平衡预期。    数据来源:wind资讯   (1)美豆供需情况   今年夏季市场满心期待的拉尼娜未能如期而至,天气炒作落空,美国农业部8月份供需报告将美国大豆单产预期上调至48.9蒲 英亩的高位后,主产区整体利于作物生长,上包括美国职业杂志在内的多个机构预测2016 17年度单产可能将达到49-50蒲 英亩,使得丰产预期愈加强烈,而且9月份将进入收割时期,产量将转化为实质性供应,对市场造成压力,因此可能造成美豆盘面探得收割低点,近月保持偏弱振荡走势。不过国内黄大豆1号交割标的是非转基因大豆,自从国家将收储政策改为直补政策后,黄大豆1号盘面走势相对比较独立,近3年豆一和CBOT大豆盘面相关性为0.526,近一年相关性仅为0.121,而CBOT大豆与DCE豆粕近3年的相关性大豆0.9,可见美豆期货走势对黄大豆1号的影响力不及豆粕。   另外,至9月份初,美豆期货指数已跌至在955美分 蒲式耳一线,下方920、900美分 蒲式耳均为重要支撑位,在全球大豆供需改善的格局下,连破支撑位且继续探新低的可能性较小,而且待市场消化收割带来的利空影响后,焦点或将转向出口需求,今年南美三季度转船出口量不及往年,促使买家将部分需求延后至购买美国大豆需求,因此出口需求预期当前保持谨慎乐观态度,或对美豆期货价格存在支撑。   (2)南美大豆供需情况   9月份,巴西农户正在准备种植2016 17年度大豆作物。今年巴西政局依旧不稳定,经济处于严重衰退期,信贷紧张,而且种植成本可能上涨,巴西农业企业Brasil Agro白哦是2016 17年度大豆种植成本可能升值7.65-8.11美元,比2015 16年度提高11%,上涨原因为种子价格上涨和缴纳专利费,这些因素将制约农户播种积极性。福斯通公司预计预计2016 17年度巴西大豆播种面积为3356万公顷,约合8290万英亩,只比今年高出31.5万公顷或0.9%。基于近几年的平均单产,大豆产量可能达到1.0185亿吨,相比之下,2015 16年度的产量因干旱而减产到9542万吨,作为对比,美国农业部最新报告预计1.03亿吨,2015 16年度9650万吨。除了关注种植面积,还需关注天气的变化。因为一旦拉尼娜发生时间发生在四季度,将对新一年度南美大豆产量造成不利影响。需求方面数据预估相较于上一年度有所提高,库存消费比呈现小幅下滑趋势。   数据来源:wind资讯   16 17年度阿根廷大豆种植面积可能略有减少,这是考虑到去年新总统上任后取消了许多农作物的出口关税,同时下调五个百分点的大豆出口关税,这一举措促使包括葵花籽等作物出口优势提升,可能替代部分大豆面积,16 17年产量预估为5700万吨,仅比15 16年增加50万吨,这一年产量因不利天气而大幅下降。需求方面均有不同程度的下降,不过因为期初库存下降明显,期末库存总体预估下滑,库存消费比由44.0%下降至41.5%。   数据来源:wind资讯   二、食品大豆需求回暖,拍卖均价小幅走高   自2016年7月15日开始,每周度国家都会开展大豆竞价销售活动,截至8月19日,总共进行8次,计划拍卖量为329万吨,实际成交量为127.76万吨,成交率31.7%。刚开始两次贸易商参与热情高涨,成交均在30万吨以上,随后四次由于陈豆质量问题,贸易商采购热情降温,成交量下降了近三分之二,基本保持在8-12万吨之间。市场普遍预期国储拍卖量在300-400万吨,这意味着每周60万吨的拍卖量很可能还是9月份的常态,如果按照8月份的平均成交率17%计算,将有40.8万吨国储豆将流入市场,这部分陈豆因品质问题难以全部流入食品领域,部分流向压榨领域,故而在新豆大量上市前,市场整体供应略偏紧。   数据来源:wind资讯   另外,2015年大豆因价格高无法吸引买主,市场购销以国储豆为主,所以国储豆周度成交量稳定在10万吨左右,随着气温下降,以及各大院校开学,南方市场对大豆需求呈回升态势,陈豆成交均价出现提升,稳步走高的陈豆价格为市场提供支撑。   数据来源:wind资讯   三、天气影响作物生长,压缩新豆产量预期   今年国家供给侧改革如火如荼进行中,在农业领域方面,《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》提出,到2020年调减玉米面积5000万亩以上,今年调减1000万亩以上。力争到2020年大豆面积达到1.4亿亩,增加4000万亩。在国家政策性引导中,我国农户大豆种植信心提升,全国大豆种植面积明显增长,预计播种面积在在7200千公倾,较2015年的5543增1657千公倾,全国增幅29.8%,东北地区大豆种植面积增加了53%,在5416万亩,其中黑龙江增幅在64%,在3740万亩(如果核算上黑地面积的话,因黑龙江没有进入官方统计口径的耕地面积数量庞大),种植面积增长推动产量明显恢复预期。   6月底至7月份长江流域大范围强降雨,包括湖北、湖南、安徽、江苏等地出现大量降雨,长江流域的大量降雨将损害当地作物的生长,尽管这些地区产量比重不及东北地区,但也会削弱种植面积增加带来的产量上升高度。随后东北地区也出现降雨,缓解前期旱情,但内蒙以及黑龙江北部有部分大豆产区出现早霜,因气温快速降低以及降雨持续,可能会导致部分产区大豆成熟时籽粒的饱满度稍差,致使局部产量受损。在强降雨和早霜的影响下,今年国产大豆产量即使出现增长,幅度恐怕也不及种植面积。   四、进口季节性淡季,大豆供应减少   2016年中国7月份进口大豆776万吨,环比增长2.65%,却不及原先预期,而且明显低于去年同期的950万吨,1-7月份大豆进口总量为4632万吨,去年同期累计为4461万吨,同比提高3.8%,累计美元金额同比下降8.6%。2016年1-6月我国累计进口大豆3856万吨,与去年同期相比增长9.9%;进口金额达148.25亿美元,同比下降6.0%。据相关网站调查显示,2016年8月份最新预期741万吨,9月份最新预计610万吨,10月份最新预期650万吨,11月份初步预期650万吨。从预期数值来说,9-10月份是我国大豆进口淡季,到港量明显下降,即使陈豆拍卖可能弥补部分缺口,但大豆港口库存仍可能呈现下降趋势,大豆总体供应减少。   数据来源:wind资讯   五、技术面   近期国内大豆1701合约整体处于3550-3900大区间运行,而近期正回调至区间下轨附近,继续大幅走低空间有限,加上利空因素的逐步消化,后市有望呈现震荡偏强运行,多头可考虑逢低吸纳策略。   图表来源:文华财经   大豆1701日K线图   交易的风险控制及意外情况处理计划   对该交易可能存在的风险及处理计划如下:   1、如果行情出现与我们看法相反的走势,我们会根据具体的技术信号,以及期价走势变化情况做出应对方案,决定头寸的相关处理。   2、若美豆出口需求表现疲弱,外盘价格走低拖累国内盘面走势,我们将注意调整投资策略,以应市场的新变化并及时做出头寸处理。   3、若国内外大豆产量增长幅度意外超过预期,我们将注意调整投资策略,以应市场的新变化并及时做出头寸处理。   瑞达期货 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: